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Confidence as a Source of Deferral

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Abstract

One apparent reason for deferring a decision – abstaining from choosing, leaving the decision open to be taken by someone else, one’s later self, or nature – is for lack of sufficient confidence in the relevant beliefs. This paper develops an axiomatic theory of decision in situations where a costly deferral option is available that captures this source of deferral. Drawing on it, a preliminary behavioural comparison with other accounts of deferral, such as those based on information asymmetry, is undertaken, and a simple multi-factor model of deferral – involving both confidence and information considerations – is formulated. The model suggests that incorporating confidence can account for cases of deferral that traditional accounts have trouble explaining.
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hal-02018559 , version 1 (13-02-2019)

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  • HAL Id : hal-02018559 , version 1

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Brian Hill. Confidence as a Source of Deferral. 2014. ⟨hal-02018559⟩
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