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Confidence as a Source of Deferral

Abstract : One apparent reason for deferring a decision – abstaining from choosing, leaving the decision open to be taken by someone else, one’s later self, or nature – is for lack of sufficient confidence in the relevant beliefs. This paper develops an axiomatic theory of decision in situations where a costly deferral option is available that captures this source of deferral. Drawing on it, a preliminary behavioural comparison with other accounts of deferral, such as those based on information asymmetry, is undertaken, and a simple multi-factor model of deferral – involving both confidence and information considerations – is formulated. The model suggests that incorporating confidence can account for cases of deferral that traditional accounts have trouble explaining.
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https://hal-hec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02018559
Contributor : Antoine Haldemann <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, February 13, 2019 - 9:46:31 PM
Last modification on : Sunday, January 19, 2020 - 6:38:14 PM

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  • HAL Id : hal-02018559, version 1

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Brian Hill. Confidence as a Source of Deferral. 2014. ⟨hal-02018559⟩

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