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Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment

Abstract : Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment.
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Preprints, Working Papers, ...
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https://hal-hec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01933825
Contributor : Antoine Haldemann <>
Submitted on : Saturday, November 24, 2018 - 2:32:33 PM
Last modification on : Saturday, December 29, 2018 - 12:34:05 PM

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Casey Helgeson, Richard Bradley, Brian Hill. Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment. 2018. ⟨hal-01933825⟩

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