An Experimental Study of Updating Ambiguous Beliefs

Itzhak Gilboa (1) , Michèle Cohen , J.Y. Jaffray , David Schmeidler (2, 1)

1 TAU - Tel Aviv University
2 OSU - Ohio State University [Columbus]

Ambiguous beliefs are beliefs which are inconsistent with a unique, additive prior. The problem of their update in face of new information has been dealt with in the theoretical literature, and received several contradictory answers. In particular, the maximum likelihood update and the full Bayesian update have been axiomatized. This experimental study attempts to test the descriptive validity of these two theories by using the Ellsberg experiment framework.

Keywords: Experimental Study; Updating; Ambiguous Beliefs

Itzhak Gilboa, Michèle Cohen, J.Y. Jaffray, David Schmeidler. An Experimental Study of Updating Ambiguous Beliefs. Risk, Decision, and Policy, 2000, vol. 5, issue 02, pp. 123-133. ⟨hal-00752307⟩