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The predictive role of counterfactuals

Abstract : We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.
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Submitted on : Tuesday, July 3, 2012 - 8:57:47 AM
Last modification on : Wednesday, August 28, 2019 - 10:26:02 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Thursday, October 4, 2012 - 2:19:00 AM

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Alfredo Di Tillio, Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson. The predictive role of counterfactuals. Theory and Decision, Springer Verlag, 2012, 73 (1), pp.NC. ⟨10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6⟩. ⟨hal-00712888⟩

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