Abstract : We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.
https://hal-hec.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-00712888
Contributeur : Amaury Bouvet
<>
Soumis le : mardi 3 juillet 2012 - 08:57:47
Dernière modification le : jeudi 11 janvier 2018 - 06:19:31
Document(s) archivé(s) le : jeudi 4 octobre 2012 - 02:19:00
Alfredo Di Tillio, Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson. The predictive role of counterfactuals. Theory and Decision, Springer Verlag, 2012, 73 (1), pp.NC. 〈10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6〉. 〈hal-00712888〉
