The predictive role of counterfactuals

Alfredo Di Tillio (1) , Itzhak Gilboa (2, 3) , Larry Samuelson (4)

1 Bocconi University
2 GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC
3 TAU - Tel Aviv University
4 Department of Economics

We suggest a model that describes how counterfactuals are constructed and justified. The model can describe how counterfactual beliefs are updated given the unfolding of actual history. It also allows us to examine the use of counterfactuals in prediction, and to show that a logically omniscient reasoner gains nothing from using counterfactuals for prediction.

Mots clés: induction; counterfactuals; prediction

Domaines: Economie et sciences de la décision

Alfredo Di Tillio, Itzhak Gilboa, Larry Samuelson. The predictive role of counterfactuals. Theory and Decision, 2012, 73 (1), pp.NC. ⟨10.1007/s11238-011-9263-6⟩. ⟨hal-00712888⟩