Does past success lead analysts to become overconfident? - Archive ouverte HAL Access content directly
Journal Articles Management Science Year : 2006

Does past success lead analysts to become overconfident?

(1) , (2)
1
2

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that analysts who have predicted earnings more accurately than the median analyst in the previous four quarters tend to be simultaneously less accurate and further from the consensus forecast in their subsequent earnings prediction. This phenomenon is economically and statistically meaningful. The results are robust to different estimation techniques and different control variables. Our findings are consistent with an attribution bias that leads analysts who have experienced a short-lived success to become overconfident in their ability to forecast future earnings.
Not file

Dates and versions

hal-00482318 , version 1 (10-05-2010)

Identifiers

Cite

Gilles Hilary, Lior Menzly. Does past success lead analysts to become overconfident?. Management Science, 2006, Vol.52, n°4, pp. 489-500. ⟨10.1287/mnsc.1050.0485⟩. ⟨hal-00482318⟩

Collections

HEC
138 View
0 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Facebook Twitter LinkedIn More