Key Success Factors for Technological Entrepreneurs' R&D Projects

Thomas Astebro (1)

1 Joseph L. Rotman School of Management

The impact of 36 innovation, technology and market characteristics on the probability that early stage R&D projects will reach the market is examined. Analysis is based on data from 561 R&D projects developed by technological entrepreneurs. Four characteristics stand out as most predictive: expected profitability, technological opportunity, development risk and appropriability conditions. These predict future commercial success well with an out-of-sample accuracy of 80.9%. This model performs better than R&D managers' and VCs forecasts of success and has the potential to be used as a screening tool for early stage R&D investment reviews by, for example, VCs. Implications for both research and practice are discussed.

Mots clés: Technological entrepreneurs; early stage R&D; project evaluation; project screening; probability of commercialization

Domaines: Stratégie et politique d’entreprise

Thomas Astebro. Key Success Factors for Technological Entrepreneurs' R&D Projects. IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management, 2004, 51 (3), pp.314-321. ⟨10.1109/TEM.2004.830863⟩. ⟨hal-00476926⟩